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Odds & Ends - Dover September 27, 2012 By VI News VegasInsider.com Sign up to receive daily news from VegasInsider Dover International Speedway History- The official opening of Dover International Speedway, then called Dover Downs International Speedway, was in 1969.- The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on July 6, 1969. Now, Roberts has analyzed the field and odds for Saturday's Drydene 311 2020. He's sharing his winner and leaderboard only at SportsLine. 2020 NASCAR at Dover expert predictions.

August 20
by Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NASCAR Cup Series
Dover Picks

The awesome news this weekend is that we have a double-header at Dover International Speedway with one race Saturday called the Drydene 311 and another on Sunday also called the Drydene 311. The not-so-awesome news is that this will be the last double-header of the season.

The concept of having two NASCAR Cup races on the same weekend wasn’t born out of the pandemic because it was originally scheduled for Pocono.

But for NASCAR to run 36 Cup races in 2020 and catch up with the original Playoff schedule, they had to do mash a few weekends together and I absolutely love it.

Dover Betting Resources

Race: Drydene 311
Date: Aug. 23, Aug. 24, 2020
TV-Time: NBCSN, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Dover International Speedway
Location: Dover, Delaware

I think NASCAR is listening too. Between the drivers and teams, I haven’t heard one bad thing about the doubleheader format except a few have complained about no practices. Expect a couple on the schedule next year and Pocono, Michigan, and Dover would be welcomed sites again.

The great thing about Dover is that it is unique to itself. There’s no other track like it. It’s a 1-mile concrete layout with 24 degrees of banking in the turns making it kind of like Bristol on steroids. It’s super-fast. Just take a look at the pole speed from Dover last May compared to New Hampshire’s flat 1-mile layout. Dover was 165 mph while New Hampshire is 133 mph. Same distance, but way different speeds.

“It’s called the Monster Mile for a reason,” said three-time Dover winner Kyle Busch. “It’s almost like going around a circle in a rollercoaster. The drop-off you have going into the corners, the sustained load that you have, as well as the G-force of turning around that turn and going back the other direction.”

NASCAR Cup Odds
Drydene 311 Race 1 Odds
Saturday, August 22, 2020

Kevin Harvick +375
Martin Truex Jr. +375
Chase Elliott +550
Denny Hamlin +600
Kyle Busch +1200
Brad Keselowski +1200
Joey Logano +1500
Ryan Blaney +1600
Jimmie Johnson +2000
Aric Almirola +2500
(Odds Subject to Change)

Handicapping Dover

Busch is one of six different drivers to have won the last six Dover races but after 23 races this season he’s still searching for his first win. The drought has pushed his odds up to 12/1 to win this week which I’m debating on how much to include him in my betting portfolio this week.

In addition to three Dover wins, he’s got 12 top-fives and led 1,210 laps. I’m not into the due theory for any betting sport, but yes, Kyle Busch is due and he’s been strong with this race package.

Buy the Hometown Narrative?

I’ll come back to Busch later, but the driver to start with this week is Martin Truex Jr. who won his first career Cup race at Dover in 2007. Dover is only two hours away from where he grew up in Mayetta, NJ and he’s treated it lately like one of the best home-field advantages in sports.

He’s been ninth or better in 10 of the last 12 races there and 15th or better in all 12. Last season he won the spring race and was runner-up in the fall. Starting with his 2016 win, he’s been fourth or better in six of his last seven Dover starts.

And then we have to talk about the run his team is on with four straight third-place finishes, two of them using this week’s race package featuring engines with 750 horsepower, the package he grabbed his only win of the year with at Martinsville. This is his race to lose.

Chasing Chase

Chase Elliott is the next driver to focus on because of his performance at both Dover and the 750 hp package this season. He’s got another reason why the doubleheaders are cool.

“To me, doubleheaders mean that there are a lot of points on the line in a short matter of time,” Elliott said. “Thankfully, for our good run at the Daytona Road Course and this new qualifying format, we will get to start up front on Saturday at Dover. Having that first pit box is also a huge thing for us this weekend.”

Elliott won the 2018 fall race at Dover and six of his eight career starts there have been top-fives. It sounds like he has this place figured out and should be paid attention to in any betting strategy so I will position him in dollar amounts to ensure a 3-to-1 return-on-investment after all my other bets lose.

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Avoid the Chalk

Oddsmakers have posted Kevin Harvick as the +275 favorite as though he’s going to duplicate the Michigan sweep. He’s a two-time Dover winner and likes this track.

“Dover is the racetrack where you feel the sensation of speed more than anything,” Harvick said. “It’s a place where you drop off into the corner and slam into a lot of banking and then, as you come out of the corner, it’s kind of like jumping out of a hole and up onto the straightaway. It’s a really fun place to race. You feel that sensation of speed and you can be really aggressive.”

Call me crazy, but I’ve left Harvick out of all my betting equations this week. I’m not betting against him in match-ups out of respect to how well his team has put everything together with a series-leading six wins. But none of those wins came with the 750 hp package. They were all with the 550 hp package - Michigan twice, Pocono, Indy, Atlanta, and Darlington.

This week’s cars used on the tracks 1-mile or shorter and road courses have a small crew of teams that have excelled like the Team Penske cars and Hendrick Motorsports with Elliott and Jimmie Johnson. Six races, four different winners with Brad Keselowski and Elliott having two wins, and Joey Logano and Truex having the others.

No Denny Hamlin, either, although he has been runner-up in his last two starts using it. William Hill books have overpriced Hamlin this week at 9/2 odds so I’m shopping for other drivers I think can win. Hamlin has never won at Dover. Keselowski is a good play just because of the car as is Blaney at 15/1 odds, but I’m reaching out to some longer shots.

Looking for Dover Longshots

I wasn’t smart enough to bag a win with Cole Custer at 300/1 odds at Kentucky or Austin Dillon at 100/1 odds at Texas, but I’ve been chasing my white whale the last few weeks and I’m going again this week. No, it’s not Aric Almirola and I’ll let you know when the time to bet hmi again is like when they race the 550 hp package again.

But Clint Bowyer at 50/1 odds said hello. He doesn’t have a Dover win, but he’s been wheeling this particular race package better than Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Harvick. He was sixth last week on the road course, fifth at Phoenix, and runner-up at Bristol, the track that might resemble Dover the most. I’m on him again this week.

He’s such a fun guy to root for and I’ve been waiting to have a post-race beer with him for a while. Maybe it’s Saturday or Sunday. I’ll have action on him both days.

The other guy is Jimmie Johnson, who like Bowyer, has been at his best with this week’s race package. He finished fourth with it last week in a sweet new paint scheme he’ll be using this week as well. Did I mention he owns the Dover track record with 11 wins and 3,110 laps led?

“We are very excited for this weekend at Dover,” Johnson said. “It’s hands down my favorite track, and from the pictures I have seen, there is a lot of Ally signage all over the place. It’s a homecoming of sorts. Performance-wise, last weekend at the Daytona Road Course we had a solid day. We needed that. Because of our fourth-place finish, we will be starting sixth Saturday at Dover, which is really an advantage to where we have been starting lately. With the random draw and the way track position has been working out, I feel like we have had things stacked against us for a while. This will be a good advantage for us, and we just have to go out there and get it done.”

Come on Jimmie. It’s been 118 races since the last win, which not so ironically came at Dover. Last season at Dover, last weekend at Dover. I love the storybook stuff in NASCAR and a Jimmie win at Dover is like peanut butter and jelly that pays out at 25-to-1 odds. It’s not all about his history, it’s about this particular race package which has been his best that includes third at Martinsville and leading 70 laps at Martinsville before finishing 10th.

As for Kyle Busch, I'll be looking to make a 15 percent bankroll profit if he wins. He's 12/1, I can't pass.

Dover Double-Header
Top-5 Finish Prediction

Saturday - August 22, 2020

1) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (11/2)
2) #14 Clint Bowyer (50/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (25/1)
4) #9 Chase Elliott (13/2)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)

Sunday - August 23, 2020

1) #9 Chase Elliott (7/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
3) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (6/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (9/2)

NASCAR Cup Series
Weekly Predictions

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Jimmie Johnson crossed the overtime line just before the final caution came out.

Just three races remain until the NASCAR Playoffs begin, and the battle for the final spots heats up on Saturday when the green flag drops on the 2020 Drydene 311 at Dover International Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron sits in the 16th and final postseason position. He is 25 points ahead of Hendrick teammate and seven-time Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson. On Saturday, Cup Series leader Kevin Harvick is the 11-4 favorite in the 2020 Drydene 311 odds from William Hill.

Harvick is followed by Martin Truex Jr. (4-1), Denny Hamlin (5-1), Chase Elliott (13-2) Brad Keselowski (12-1) and Kyle Busch (12-1) in the 2020 Drydene 311 starting lineup, and the green flag drops at 4 p.m. ET. With drivers unable to practice or qualify before the race on Saturday, you'll want to check out the Drydene 311 predictions from SportsLine's Micah Roberts, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who pioneered wagering on racing, before locking in any 2020 Drydene 311 picks of your own.

Roberts is the nation's premier NASCAR betting expert, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed Hamlin's victory in the Toyota 500 in May, even though he wasn't one of the top three favorites.

Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on his predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100.

In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four picks in those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400. Anyone who has followed his NASCAR picks is up huge year after year.

Now, Roberts has analyzed the field and odds for Saturday's Drydene 311 2020. He's sharing his winner and leaderboard only at SportsLine.

2020 NASCAR at Dover expert predictions

One shocker: Roberts is fading Harvick, even though he's the Cup Series leader and the Vegas favorite. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has six wins, 15 top-five and 19 top-10 finishes this season. He is coming off a 17th-place finish at the road course at Daytona International Speedway.

'He leads the Cup Series with six wins, but none of them have come in the six races using the 750-horsepower package,' Roberts told SportsLine. 'I don't believe he'll be racing for the win. His odds remind me of Jimmie Johnson's at Dover when he was in his prime.'

Another curveball: Roberts is high on Matt Kenseth, even though he's an enormous long shot at 150-1. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Kenseth was the runner-up in Indianapolis earlier this season, climbing from a starting position of 21. He also finished in the top 12 in both races at Pocono.

'Kenseth's three Dover wins have come at all stages of his career, the last coming in 2016 when he drove for Joe Gibbs,' Roberts said. 'Even though Kenseth has struggled since coming back, he's worth a few bucks here because of his past, but mostly because Kyle Larson won in the No. 42 at Dover last fall. Those winning notes should still be fresh.'

How to make 2020 NASCAR at Dover picks

Roberts also is high on a astronomical long shot who excels with this week's race package, which 'gives him his best chance to win.' Anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can only see who it is here.

So who wins Saturday's 2020 Drydene 311? And what long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected 2020 NASCAR at Dover leaderboard, all from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.

2020 NASCAR at Dover odds (via William Hill)

Kevin Harvick 11-4

Denny Hamlin 9-2

Martin Truex Jr. 5-1

Chase Elliott 13-2

Kyle Busch 10-1

Brad Keselowski 12-1

Ryan Blaney 14-1

Joey Logano 15-1

Aric Almirola 20-1

Jimmie Johnson 25-1

Kurt Busch 30-1

William Byron 40-1

Erik Jones 40-1

Alex Bowman 40-1

Matt DiBenedetto 40-1

Clint Bowyer 50-1

Christopher Bell 75-1

Tyler Reddick 75-1

Cole Custer 100-1

Austin Dillon 150-1

Matt Kenseth 150-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 200-1

Ryan Newman 200-1

Chris Buescher 300-1

Bubba Wallace 500-1

John Hunter Nemechek 1000-1

Ty Dillon 2000-1

Michael McDowell 2000-1

Ryan Preece 2000-1

Daniel Suarez 2500-1