Daytona 500 Favorites

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NASCAR Cup Betting Resources
Daytona 500 Picks

Drivers Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin are the favorites to win the 2020 Daytona 500. That being said, it’s anybody’s race, and a major upset can occur. What was the most famous upset in Daytona 500 history? Daytona’s most famous upset occurred during the 1990 Daytona 500. Fans all remember the moment, but Ryan Newman has no recollection. On the final lap of the 2020 Daytona 500, Newman's No. 6 Cup Series car flipped and went airborne in a fiery, violent crash. Feb 11, 2021 2021 Daytona 500 news: Everything you need to know for the Great American Race. Michael McDowell wins the Daytona 500; Full starting grid for 2021 Daytona 500 after 8 cars moved to the back; How Daytona 500 starting lineup has changed odds to win; View all 19 stories.

  • Date: Sunday, February 14, 2021
  • TV-Time: FOX, 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Daytona International Speedway
  • Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
  1. His record remained 0-for-357 entering Sunday’s Daytona 500 and while he had shown himself to be an accomplished superspeedway driver, he wasn’t among the list of favorites to end his winless streak in the race.
  2. Feb 04, 2021 The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Daytona International Speedway on Sunday February 14 for the opening race of the 2021 season from Daytona Beach, Florida and VegasInsider.com expert Micah Roberts previews the races, plus he provides Top 5 NASCAR Picks and Predictions for for the 2021 NASCAR Daytona 500.

Handicapping NASCAR at Daytona

In the previous 62 Daytona 500s, no driver has won three straight of NASCAR’s most prestigious race and we haven’t seen anyone get the opportunity since Sterling Marlin tried in the 1996 event. But 2021 gives us a chance to watch history as Denny Hamlin will try to win his third straight Daytona 500 on Sunday and he’s fully aware of what is at stake.

'I hope that I'm around (don't wreck early), that I give myself a chance to make history because ultimately, that's what I'm here for,' Hamlin said. 'Making history, doing something that no one else has ever done, that's what motivates me to want to get this one.'

He also will be shooting for his fourth Daytona 500 which would tie him with Cale Yarborough for second-most behind Richard Petty’s seven wins. He has a chance to make history and that’s the main theme coming into the 63rd running of the race.

There are only five active drivers other than Hamlin to win a Daytona 500 and all of them have one win each. Some of the best superspeedway drivers, or those from the restrictor-plate era, have retired and taken their secrets of manipulating the air in the draft. But the 40-year-old Hamlin learned in his younger years by watching the greats and finally won a superspeedway race in his ninth season racing on them at Talladega in 2014.

Now he’s got five superspeedway wins, winning two of four last season -- top-four in all four -- closing out with a Talladega win. He led laps in all four superspeedway races last season and used different strategies in all. He’d either get upfront and lead to keep the ‘Big One’ behind him or fall behind to keep an eye in front of him with enough room to avoid the inevitable pile up that always happens on superspeedways. He’s been successful at both.


Denny Hamlin seeks a third consecutive Daytona 500 title on Sunday afternoon. (AP)

He’s also got Joe Gibbs Racing equipment which has worked hard to be competitive in the opener at Daytona. Matt Kenseth led a bunch of laps on superspeedways for JGR, Erik Jones got a summer Daytona win in 2018, and Kyle Busch has the top Daytona rating (91.1) among all drivers since NASCAR's Loop Data started keeping track in 2005. Hamlin is rated No. 2 (88.7) over that span.

In Wednesday morning’s first practice before qualifying, JGR equipment posted the top-five speeds with the new 2021 entry, Bubba Wallace, fastest with his Michael Jordan-Hamlin-owned No. 23.

The point is that it hasn’t all been Hamlin, but he’s been the one to use his skills the best and get out front lately. He uses the side-draft better than anyone and he blocks while leading better than anyone which is why we’re talking about him possibly winning for the third straight season. The car rules and race packages are the same as 2020, although Hamlin’s winning Daytona 500 car from last season is on display at Daytona USA.

NASCAR Cup Odds - Daytona

  • Denny Hamlin +800
  • Chase Elliott +1000
  • Joey Logano +1000
  • Ryan Blaney +1000
  • Brad Keselowski +1400
  • William Byron +1400
  • (Odds Subject to Change)

William Hill sportsbooks have him listed as the 8-to-1 favorite while Circa Sports updated numbers Wednesday have him favored at 11-to-1 odds, the best number in the world.

I’ve been saying for years to be careful and be smart wagering every time there’s a superspeedway race. It’s repetitive but I feel it’s important to remind you all that the volatility of these two tracks changes the true driver rating for each driver because they’re more susceptible to being caught up in a wreck at no fault of their than other tracks.

That’s why I say ditch the props and driver match-ups, but spend some more than usual on odds to win mixing in weighted amounts on a couple of favorites like Hamlin or Ryan Blaney (14/1), middle of the board drivers like Kyle Busch (19/1), Wallace (28/1), Chris Buescher (51/1), and a long shot like Jones (60/1) or Ryan Newman (60/1).

The sportsbooks know this as well which is why they don’t offer any huge odds on the long shots but offer big odds on the favorites. It’s the randomness, the crapshoot of it all where any driver can win. As the wrecks start happening, you start throwing bet tickets away, but for the final five laps, you may have three of the 10 drivers in the lead pack and have just as good of a shot as any.

Last season I had tickets on Hamlin and Newman in that situation and I got lucky, but I believed in Newman and the Roush equipment for superspeedways. I still do to an extent with Newman and Buescher, who finished third in the Daytona 500.

Let’s talk about some contenders to derail Hamlin’s quest for history beginning with his new employee Wallace who William Hill is offering at 28-to-1 odds.

Daytona 500 Contenders

The Toyota’s have the least amount of friends and the drivers always choose manufacturers of their own to draft with which is all the more reason to be astounded by Hamlin’s success. The Fords and Chevrolets all have more cars on the track than Toyota. But Hamlin just got a new wingman with Wallace in case Martin Truex, Jr., Busch, or Christopher Bell aren’t around to push him.

Wallace had three top-fives in his three seasons with Richard Petty Motorsports and two of them came at Daytona, including a runner-up as a rookie in 2018. It’s the only type of racing he had success with continuously where he could find his way to the front. But now he has basically a JGR car with Michael Jordan money attached and crew chief Mike Wheeler who was chief for Hamlin in the 2016 Daytona 500 win. This car is going to be fast and contending for the win while also pushing or being pushed by Hamlin.

I instantly thought of the 2001 Daytona 500 when Dale Earnhardt, just before he passed, was blocking for his two DEI cars driven by Michael Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and gave up his chance to win -- he had a fast RCR No. 3 that day -- to let his two cars battle it out. He had never given anybody anything like that in his career.

That scenario won’t play out here because Hamlin is going for three straight, but I’m sure at some point we’ll see Hamlin have a hand at helping Wallace gets his first career Cup win, and if I could bet where it’ll happen I would say on one of the four superspeedway races.

Team Penske has a great superspeedway package but only Joey Logano has a Daytona 500 win (2015). Brad Keselowski has a 2016 win at Daytona in the summer race and five other wins at Talladega.

Ryan Blaney has won at Talladega in each of the last two seasons and was runner-up in the Daytona 500 last season. They all have fast cars and all are also very good at understanding how the draft works. They also have friends from Roush, Front Row Motorsports, Wood Brothers, and Stewart-Haas Racing that drives Fords and can help in the draft.

The Chevy camp comes loaded with speed and young talent. Chevrolet has won the Daytona 500 pole the last eight seasons, and a Hendrick engine has won the last six, five of which were by a Hendrick driver.

Nascar Daytona 500 Favorites

William Byron (16/1) won last summer at Daytona for his first career Cup win. He’s a nice pick to take his next logical step into NASCAR stardom in a year that just saw Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson,, and Clint Bowyer retire.

Chase Elliott (14/1) comes off his first championship season and NASCAR is hoping for more to come -- see seven road courses on the 2021 schedule. But he’s never won at Daytona in a points-paying race. This would be a great place for the champ to bust out and gain an even bigger audience of young fans. Chase just has a quiet coolness about him and is hard not to like.

Back to only five active drivers that have Daytona 500 wins other than Hamlin. Earnhardt went almost an entire career racing and dominating all races at Daytona until finally winning the Daytona 500 in 1998. Tony Stewart never won one. Kyle Busch starts his 17th Daytona 500 searching for his first win. Keselowski is also still searching for his trophy, so is Truex, and so is Elliott -- all Cup champions.

As always, I’ll go for the historical moment to happen and I supported Hamlin through the betting window, along with a few other guys I mentioned in this piece. Here are my top-5 selections using odds from Circa Sports Las Vegas:

Daytona

Daytona 500
Top-5 Finish Prediction

  • 1) #11 Denny Hamlin (11/1)
  • 2) #12 Ryan Blaney (14/1)
  • 3) #10 Aric Almirola (24/1)
  • 4) #47 Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (26/1)
  • 5) #24 William Byron (16/1)

NASCAR Cup Series
Weekly Predictions


DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- You don't have to watch golf every weekend to love The Masters. You don't have to be an odds enthusiast who lives at the betting window to love the Kentucky Derby. And you sure don't have to be an auto racing fan to appreciate the Daytona 500, NASCAR's premiere event.

The first real race day of 2021 has finally arrived, as the green flag is scheduled to drop on the 63rd running of the Daytona 500 around 2:30 p.m. ET. Even if you never watch auto racing, this race -- which marks the 20th anniversary of Dale Earnhardt's death at the track -- should still be considered a must-see.

So, what do you need to know before Sunday's 500-mile, 200-lap, 200 mph event? Here's a cheat sheet you can keep on your phone to read fascinating fast facts aloud to your family and make them think you're the second coming of Fireball Roberts. It's broken down into sections of three, because that makes it easier to remember, and because this is Daytona and, well ... EAAARNNNHARDTTT!

Three storylines to watch

Denny Hamlin and history. For those of us who exist in a more seasoned age demographic, it's hard to believe it's been a decade and a half since Hamlin showed up for his first Daytona Speedweeks and promptly shocked the racing world by winning the Budweiser Shootout (now the Busch Clash) all-star race. But over the past five years, he has become a bona fide Daytona legend, winning three of the past five editions of the Great American Race, including the past two in a row. If he wheels his No. 11 FedEx Toyota into Victory Lane again on Sunday, he will become the first driver to win NASCAR's biggest race three years in a row and move into a tie for second place in all-time 500 wins, while also tying Cale Yarborough with four Daytona wins.

Hamlin's other team and history. Hamlin is also entered in this year's race as a team owner. This year's Daytona 500 will be the maiden voyage for the No. 23 Toyota of new 23XI Racing, co-owned by Hamlin and Michael Jordan. How'd that happen? Hamlin is to the Charlotte Hornets what Jack Nicholson is to the Los Angeles Lakers or Spike Lee to the New York Knicks, the constant courtside presence. He had been bugging Jordan for years to get involved in NASCAR, so why now? Because Bubba Wallace was available to hire as a driver. Now Wallace, who finished second in the 2018 Daytona 500 (his first career 500 start), is attempting to become the first Black driver to win a Cup race since 1963 and the first driver to win the Great American Race in a from-scratch race team. For more Hamlin, Bubba and MJ, read this story from Saturday.

Kyle Busch finally undoing history. The driver they call Rowdy has won at least once on every current Cup Series racetrack (not counting the still-new Charlotte and Daytona rovals) and with 213 wins across NASCAR's three national series, he has a trophy from every significant event on every stock car schedule ... except for the biggest one of them all. Busch is 0-for-15 in the Daytona 500 and is now approaching the February frustration level of a long list of men whom he will join one day in the NASCAR Hall of Fame, from Dale Earnhardt (won on his 20th try) and Darrell Waltrip (won on his 17th try) to Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin and Tony Stewart, who won a combined 166 races and six Cup titles, but who also combined to go 0-for-111 in the 500.

Three favorites to watch

Hamlin. Do we need to remind you about that whole won-three-of-the-past-five thing? And you don't have to take my word. Vegas has him at the top of its board at 8-1. (If you'd like to read more about Daytona 500 betting, check out this post from the ESPN Betting Insiders.)

Brad Keselowski. He has long been a great superspeedway racer with six victories between Daytona and Talladega, but he is 0-for-11 in the 500. Last year summed up his career in the Great American Race: He led the second-most laps behind Hamlin (30) but crashed out and finished 36th. This is the only jewel missing from BK's NASCAR Hall of Fame crown.

Ryan Blaney. Last year's Daytona 500 runner-up was one of the early favorites to fight for the 2020 Cup championship, but he faded by summer's end. Two of his four career wins have come at Talladega, and he looked strong in his Duel 150 qualifier Thursday night. Everyone agrees that Blaney is on the cusp of stardom, but he needs a signature win to finally start fulfilling that potential. This could be it.

The next three

Chase Elliott. The defending Cup champ has spent his career tripping over his own bumper in the 500, winning two poles and leading 69 laps, but never finishing higher than 14th, throwing in a couple of wrecks for good measure. But last fall in the regular-season cutoff race, he finished second to William Byron by .119 seconds. That effort helped boost the Son of Bill to his first Cup Series title.

Austin Dillon. People will always complain that Dillon drives the Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevy because it was made famous by Dale Earnhardt. But Dillon (who was OK'd by Earnhardt himself as heir to the throne when Dillon was a kid) won the Daytona 500 in 2018, owns seven top-10s in 15 career Daytona oval starts, and did you see that move he made to beat Bubba Wallace at the line in Thursday night's second Duel 150 qualifier? It would be hard to find a better storyline than that car winning this race around the 20th anniversary of Earnhardt's death.

Kevin Harvick. Happy has been mighty quiet during these Speedweeks. After winning nine races but failing to make the Championship Four last fall, the 2007 Daytona 500 champ is more like Unhappy. And that usually means the rest of the field will end up being the unhappy ones.

Three sleepers not to sleep on

Kyle Larson. After using a racial slur during a virtual race last April, Larson was fired by Chip Ganassi Racing and suspended from the Cup Series for the majority of the 2020 season. He returns behind the wheel Sunday, this time at Hendrick Motorsports. The Big One seems to attract Larson like a magnet, but in his past two Daytona 500 starts with Chip Ganassi Racing, he finished seventh and 10th.

Daytona 500 Betting Favorites

Chris Buescher. He has quietly finished in the top five twice over the past three years. He also owns five top-10s in 10 career Daytona oval starts, which is a quarter of his career top-10 finishes.

Ryan Newman. Buescher's Roush Fenway Racing teammate will forever be linked to the Daytona 500 via his horrifying finish line crash one year ago, which more people are likely to remember than his win in this race in 2008. But what few seem to recall about his '20 wreck is that he was in the lead and within sight of the checkered flag when it happened.

Three things to blurt out to impress your friends

Who Are The Favorites To Win The Daytona 500

'Isn't it great to see Pitbull involved in NASCAR?' Jordan isn't the only superstar who has decided to write big checks and go racing in 2021. Mr. Worldwide has joined the Trackhouse Racing Team as a co-owner and will be in Daytona on Sunday, not just to cheer on driver Daniel Suarez in the No. 99 Chevy, but also as the Daytona 500 grand marshal. This is no fluke involvement, either. The music artist has loved NASCAR since he watched 'Days of Thunder' as a kid, and years ago he purchased a stock car for his Miami charter school as a tool to teach science and math.

'You know, this is the last Daytona 500 for this particular generation of stock car.' OK, we totally told you to say this last year, too. But due to the pandemic-altered 2020 season, NASCAR wisely chose to postpone the introduction of its 'Next Gen' model of race car until 2022. The sanctioning body has been working with Chevy, Ford and Toyota to design a new stock car they promise will be cheaper to build, more brand-identifiable and, yes, racier. Teams tested the first iteration of the Next Gen car at multiple racetracks over the winter and early reactions were good ones.

Nascar Daytona 500 Favorites

'It is truly amazing what NASCAR has done to improve safety since Dale Earnhardt's death 20 years ago this week.' It has indeed been 20 years since The Intimidator died on the final lap of the Daytona 500, but thanks to the safety evolution that took place as a result of his death, no driver has been killed across NASCAR's top three national series since that awful day of Feb. 18, 2001. For more, you should check out our four-part series on Earnhardt's racing and safety legacies. Yes, we know that's a lot of reading to finish between now and the start of the 2021 Daytona 500. But looking at the weather radar, it unfortunately seems like you're going to have plenty of time.